Summary: Nottingham’s population was estimated at 325,765 in 2025. After rebasing the projections to this figure, the recommended migration category variant reaches approximately 326,656 by 2045 - growth of only 891 people, or 0.3%, compared with growth of 4.0% between 2015 and 2025. Despite this limited population growth, household numbers increase by around 11,300, or 8.7%, under the migration category household variant.
Population projections help plan housing, schools, transport, health services and other infrastructure. They are not predictions or targets. They show how the population could change if recent patterns of births, deaths and migration continued under a particular set of assumptions.
The Office for National Statistics publishes several 2022-based subnational population projection variants. Each uses a different migration assumption. For this update, the variants have been aligned, or rebased, to Nottingham's 2025 population estimate. The 2025 estimate becomes the common starting point, and the projected annual percentage changes are then applied from 2026 onwards.
The chart at the top of this page compares the latest population estimates with six rebased variants. The lines move apart quickly because migration has a particularly large effect in Nottingham. As a compact university city, Nottingham experiences substantial movement into and out of the council area, including international arrivals, students, graduates and households moving to surrounding districts.
The migration category variant is the most plausible central assumption. It projects a population of about 326,656 by 2045, broadly unchanged from 2025. This would represent a substantial slowdown: Nottingham’s population grew by 14.4% between 2005 and 2025 and by 4.0% between 2015 and 2025, compared with projected growth of only 0.3% over the next 20 years.
Future growth could be lower and closer to the low migration variant, which projects a population of around 299,602 by 2045, a decrease of 8.0% from 2025. This is a credible risk if international migration remains lower and Nottingham continues to lose residents to other parts of the UK.
The high migration variant reaches approximately 359,010 by 2045, an increase of 10.2% from 2025, but would require a sustained return to much stronger migration and is thus unlikely to occur. Given recent population and migration trends, this appears less likely and is better treated as a sensitivity test rather than a probable outcome.
Overall, the migration category projection points to a shift from sustained historical growth towards broad stability, with the current balance of risk towards lower rather than higher growth. Planning should use the central variant as its main assumption while also testing proposals against the low migration scenario.
Variant | Population in 2045 | Change from 2025 |
High migration | 359,010 | +10.2% |
10-year migration | 336,994 | +3.4% |
Five-year migration | 331,701 | +1.8% |
Migration category | 326,656 | +0.3% |
Low migration | 299,602 | -8.0% |
Zero net migration | 269,939 | -17.1% |
Table 1. Rebased population projection variants for 2045
The range should be treated as a practical test of uncertainty. It does not mean that every outcome is equally likely. The recommended variant provides a central assumption, but plans that depend heavily on migration should also be checked against higher and lower scenarios.
The migration category projection is close to flat because the main components of change are expected to offset one another. International migration is expected to add residents, while internal migration to other parts of the UK removes residents. Natural change - births minus deaths - is expected to remain marginally positive but to weaken as birth rates fall and the population ages.
This balance is important. A decline in international migration, or a larger loss to other UK areas, could produce population decline. Stronger international migration or improved retention of graduates and other residents could produce growth. Recent annual estimates have also been volatile, so the projection should be reviewed when new evidence becomes available rather than treated as a fixed forecast.
Although Nottingham’s total population is projected to remain broadly stable, its age structure is expected to change considerably. Under the migration category variant, the number of children and teenagers aged 0 to 18 falls by around 14% between 2025 and 2045. The population aged 19 to 20 falls by around 7%, while the number aged 21 to 40 falls by around 5%.
These reductions are offset by growth at older ages. The population aged 41 to 65 increases by around 10%, while the number of residents aged 66 and over rises by around 29%. Nottingham is therefore expected to remain a relatively young city, but older residents will account for a larger share of its population.
Although Nottingham’s total population is projected to remain broadly stable, its age structure is expected to change considerably. Under the migration category variant, the number of children and teenagers aged 0 to 18 falls by around 14% between 2025 and 2045. The population aged 19 to 20 falls by around 7%, while the number aged 21 to 40 falls by around 5%.
These reductions are offset by growth at older ages. The population aged 41 to 65 increases by around 10%, while the number of residents aged 66 and over rises by around 29%. Nottingham is therefore expected to remain a relatively young city, but older residents will account for a larger share of its population.
Population and household growth are not the same. Household numbers can rise even when the population changes little if average household size falls. This can happen when more people live alone, more couples live without children, or the population becomes older.
Under the migration category household variant, the number of households increases from 129,889 in 2025 to 141,147 in 2045. This is 11,258 additional households, or 8.7%, despite projected population growth of only 0.3%. The contrast implies continued demand for housing, particularly smaller and accessible homes, even if the total population remains close to its present level. Under the low international migration variant, household numbers remain broadly stable, falling slightly from 130,881 to 130,738. The low migration and migration category variants indicate outcomes ranging from broadly stable household numbers (i.e. no growth) to growth of 8.7%.
Under the high international migration variant, which appears less plausible given recent trends, household numbers rise from 131,288 in 2025 to 155,737 in 2045—an increase of 18.6%. Although this is not considered the most likely outcome, it shows how sensitive future housing demand is to migration and provides a useful higher-growth scenario for testing housing plans.
Note: Household projections should be treated with greater caution than population estimates because they rely on additional assumptions about how people form households. They also exclude people living in communal establishments, such as university halls, care homes, prisons and some hostels, which is particularly relevant in Nottingham.
Nottingham’s age profile is expected to shift considerably over the next two decades. The projected decline in the number of children and young people suggests that demand for new mainstream school places from the population living within NCC is likely to fall. This aligns with wider national demographic patterns: England’s fertility rate has been declining since around 2010, contributing to fewer births nationally and locally.
Nottingham’s age profile is expected to change even if its total population remains broadly stable. Fewer children are likely to reduce demand for mainstream school places over time, although the effect will move gradually from early years and primary into secondary education. Cross-boundary pupil movements and growing demand for SEND provision mean that local needs will still require regular monitoring.
Growth among older residents is likely to increase demand for health and adult social care, accessible housing and homes that support independent living. A wider choice of suitable housing could also help release larger homes for families.
Household growth may be more significant than population growth. Under the migration category variants, Nottingham gains only around 900 residents between 2025 and 2045, but approximately 11,258 more households. This suggests continued demand for smaller, accessible and adaptable homes, although household projections should be treated cautiously because they rely on additional assumptions about household formation.
Source: Office for National Statistics, Subnational population projections for England: 2022-based and Household projections for England: 2022-based. Population variants have been locally rebased by Nottingham City Council to the official 2025 mid-year population estimate using the annual percentage changes in the original ONS projections. Age-profile changes are calculated from the underlying ONS migration category variant and have not been separately rebased